The second edition of Champions League new league-phase format reaches its dramatic conclusion on Wednesday night, with 30 of the 36 teams still unsure of their fate and a single, synchronised kick-off set to ignite chaos across Europe.
With all 18 matches starting at 20:00 GMT on 28 January, the margins are razor-thin, the permutations endless, and the stakes enormous, particularly for the six English clubs chasing a place in the coveted top eight, which guarantees automatic qualification to the last 16.
Never before have six clubs from one country competed in the Champions League, let alone all harboured realistic hopes of reaching the knockout rounds.
Arsenal Sit Pretty, Bayern Close Behind
At the summit stand Arsenal, the only side to have won all seven matches so far. Just one point at home against Kairat Almaty will secure top spot and confirm their status as favourites.
According to Opta’s prediction model, the Gunners are best placed to lift the trophy for the first time, with a 31% chance of winning the competition, ahead of Bayern Munich (16.9%), Manchester City (8.8%), Barcelona (8.1%), and Liverpool (8%).
Bayern, meanwhile, will guarantee a top-two finish and the advantage of second-leg ties at home, if they avoid defeat away to PSV Eindhoven.
The final itself will be staged in Budapest.
England’s Top Eight Battle
Alongside Arsenal, Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle United, and Chelsea currently occupy top-eight positions. Remaining there would allow them to bypass the February play-offs entirely.
But the table is brutally congested.
Manchester City, currently outside the top eight, are level on 13 points with Newcastle (7th) and Chelsea (8th), trailing only on goal difference.
In fact, eight teams sit on 13 points, with just three points separating third from 15th.
Every goal may matter.
Who Is Already Through to the Last 16?
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Arsenal: Guaranteed qualification, chasing top spot
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Bayern Munich: Virtually secure, barring defeat at PSV
Teams finishing 9th to 24th will enter the two-legged play-offs on 17/18 and 24/25 February, fighting for the remaining eight last-16 places.
Mourinho, Conte, and the Ghosts of Chelsea Past
One of the night’s most compelling narratives unfolds in Naples, where Chelsea visit Napoli, managed by former Blues boss Antonio Conte.
Chelsea must win at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona to secure direct qualification. Napoli last season’s Serie A champions, must also win just to stay alive in the competition.
Conte, who guided Chelsea to the 2016–17 Premier League title, spoke warmly ahead of the reunion:
“It was a great experience. We’re talking about a fantastic club with a great vision, a winning mentality and the same desire to win.”
That title-winning season saw Chelsea record 13 consecutive league wins and amass 93 points, with Conte later describing the achievement as a “miracle”.
Chelsea head coach Liam Rosenior, in post for only weeks, said:
“I have huge respect for him. Firstly as a player, he was a magnificent footballer… he’s won many titles, including an incredible title here last year.”
Napoli also boast three former Chelsea players; Romelu Lukaku, Kevin De Bruyne, and Billy Gilmour, though all are injured or unlikely to start.
Liverpool, Spurs, and Madrid: Win and You’re In
For Liverpool (15 points), Real Madrid (15), and Tottenham (14), the equation is simple: win and qualify automatically.
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Liverpool host Qarabag, with captain Virgil van Dijk urging focus:
“It’s all down to us again. Let’s make sure we’re in the top eight… it’s very important as you miss the play-offs.”
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Tottenham travel to Eintracht Frankfurt, already eliminated.
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Real Madrid visit Benfica, managed by former Madrid boss Jose Mourinho, whose side must win to have any chance of sneaking into the play-offs.
Manchester City vs Galatasaray: A Dangerous Draw
City host Galatasaray, a side with an ominous record against English clubs.
The Turkish giants are unbeaten in their last four matches against Premier League opposition, including victories over Manchester United, Tottenham, and Liverpool.
Galatasaray assistant manager Ismael Garcia Gomez explained why:
“The Turkish league is the most English outside England and Galatasaray is the most English Turkish club of all.”
“We feel comfortable against English teams because they are open… if we are at a good level we can face anything. We are very confident.”
Galatasaray sit 17th on 10 points. Avoiding defeat secures a play-off place. City, meanwhile, must win and hope results elsewhere fall kindly.
PSG vs Newcastle: A European Heavyweight Clash
Another headline fixture sees Paris St-Germain host Newcastle United in one of only two top-eight contenders facing each other.
PSG boss Luis Enrique, whose side have been inconsistent despite controlling matches, said:
“We deserved to win, but that’s how it is in football.”
“We’re going to try to dominate and win the match.”
Newcastle face a daunting trip, while PSG look to rediscover the attacking spark that powered last season’s Champions League triumph.
Play-Off Scramble: Almost Everyone Still Alive
Astonishingly, every team down to Ajax in 32nd still has a mathematical chance of finishing in the top 24.
Only Frankfurt, Slavia Prague, Villarreal, and Kairat have been eliminated.
Just three points separate Marseille (19th) and Ajax, while even Borussia Dortmund (16th) are not yet guaranteed a play-off spot.
Final Round Fixtures (All 20:00 GMT)
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Ajax v Olympiacos
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Arsenal v Kairat Almaty
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Athletic Club v Sporting CP
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Atletico Madrid v Bodo/Glimt
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Barcelona v Copenhagen
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Bayer Leverkusen v Villarreal
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Benfica v Real Madrid
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Borussia Dortmund v Inter Milan
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Club Brugge v Marseille
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Eintracht Frankfurt v Tottenham
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Liverpool v Qarabag
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Manchester City v Galatasaray
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Monaco v Juventus
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Napoli v Chelsea
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PSV Eindhoven v Bayern Munich
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Pafos v Slavia Prague
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Paris St-Germain v Newcastle
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Union Saint-Gilloise v Atalanta
