Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro’s military is reportedly prepared to wage a prolonged guerrilla war and sow widespread chaos throughout the country should the US attempt a ground invasion to depose him, according to a new report from Reuters.
The report suggests that the Venezuelan dictator is aware his nation’s armed forces are significantly dwarfed by the might of the American military.
Rather than facing an invading force head-on, Venezuela plans to mount a guerrilla-style resistance and execute an “anarchization” strategy to prevent the US from quickly installing a new leader.
The preparations come amid escalating tensions, with the US deploying more than 10 warships—including the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R. Ford—and a Marine Expeditionary Unit in the Caribbean.
Sources and documents obtained indicate that in the event of a US ground or air attack, Venezuela will activate a strategy referred to by high-ranking officials in Caracas as “prolonged resistance.”
The plan involves military units being ordered to split into more than 280 locations across the country to employ guerrilla tactics and acts of sabotage against invaders. Maduro has recently deployed $5,000$ Russian-made Igla missiles, which a source said would be used for surprise attacks, particularly in the face of aerial aggression.
Venezuela’s military has also reinforced routes leading to the capital, creating fortified roads filled with anti-vehicle barriers and heavy machinery to stymie any ground invasion of Caracas. Maduro’s forces are also set to launch an “anarchization” strategy, which would utilize intelligence services and loyalists to create disorder in the capital and make Venezuela ungovernable for any US-backed replacement regime.
While the National Bolivarian Armed Forces of Venezuela (FANB) boasts about $123,000$ active personnel, sources suggest the army is small, inexperienced, and ill-equipped. The military relies heavily on aging Soviet-era weapons and technology acquired by Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, which would be largely ineffective against advanced American military assets.
Furthermore, analysts expect that should Maduro activate the supposed $8$-million strong civilian militia, only thousands of people truly loyal to his ruling party would show up for combat.
The report suggests that third-party actors could complicate any conflict. The country’s western border sees heavy use by Colombian guerrilla forces like the National Liberation Army. Drug trafficking groups operating in the country—whose international operations have been the justification for America’s increasing threats—could also potentially become involved.
Maduro has repeatedly denied any allegations that his regime is linked with drug trafficking groups, accusing the US of making false allegations to justify an invasion and take control of Venezuela’s vast oil reserves.
