When Ali Khamenei was k!lled in one of the first missile strikes launched by the United States and Israel during their war with Iran, he was 86 years old and reportedly in poor health.
Senior officials in Iran had already prepared succession plans in the event of his death, though they likely did not anticipate the circumstances in which it would occur.
Iran’s state-linked Mehr News Agency reported that a decision on Khamenei’s successor has already been reached, but “some obstacles” still need to be resolved before the name is publicly announced. A member of the Assembly of Experts, Hojjatoleslam Jafari, said he hopes the decision will satisfy the Iranian public.
He said: “The delay in electing the third leader is bitter and unwanted for everyone, and there is no alternative, so we should not have bad thoughts about our representatives at this difficult time.” Reports from The New York Times previously indicated that the leading candidate to succeed Khamenei is his second son, Mojtaba Khamenei.
According to Christian Emery of University College London, Mojtaba’s possible appointment would likely be controversial. “He is reportedly extremely influential inside Iran but working against him is both his lack of government experience and the political and clerical establishment’s fear that returning to hereditary rule would undermine the Iranian Revolution’s founding principle of no more Shahs,” Emery said.
The BBC previously reported that Ali Khamenei had warned years earlier against hereditary succession and was believed to have ruled out Mojtaba as a potential successor.
However, Mojtaba is believed to have strong links with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, suggesting that the group could gain even greater influence if he were selected. Emery said those ties date back to Mojtaba’s service during the Iran-Iraq War, which remains a central element of the Islamic Republic’s identity.
If Mojtaba were appointed Supreme Leader, Emery said it would likely ensure that the “enormous economic and political power base” developed by the Revolutionary Guards during Ali Khamenei’s rule would remain intact.
The appointment could also make him a potential target. In a post on X, Israel Katz warned that the next Iranian Supreme Leader would be “an unequivocal target for elimination,” regardless of who holds the position.
The strikes that k!lled Ali Khamenei reportedly also killed members of his family, including his wife Zahra Adel, his mother Mansoureh Khojasteh Bagherzadeh, and one of his sons. Iran has had only two Supreme Leaders since the Iranian Revolution. The first was Ruhollah Khomeini, who ruled until his death in 1989. Ali Khamenei then became the country’s second Supreme Leader.
Under Iran’s constitution, the Assembly of Experts, an elected body made up of 88 clerics, is responsible for choosing the next Supreme Leader through a majority vote. Within the assembly, a smaller committee prepares a shortlist of acceptable candidates before the final decision is made.
Emery noted that this groundwork is usually completed well in advance. When Khamenei himself became Supreme Leader in 1989, the Assembly of Experts reportedly took only 24 hours to approve him.
However, the ongoing war could complicate the process. Emery said it is unclear how the Assembly could safely convene, as such a gathering might present an opportunity for Israel or the United States to target additional Iranian leaders.
Other potential candidates include Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who currently serves as Iran’s chief justice and is considered a hardline figure associated with crackdowns on anti-government protests.
Another possible candidate is Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic. Analysts say his family name and connections to both reformist and conservative factions could make him a stabilising option for the regime.
A third contender is Alireza Arafi, a member of both the Guardian Council and the Assembly of Experts. Observers say Arafi could be viewed as a relatively safe choice who would likely continue Khamenei’s policies without challenging the influence of the Revolutionary Guard.
